A recent study just released by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington has described the possible results of a preemptive strike on the Iranian nuclear reactor at Bushehr.  In the report, the authors detail how such an attack would create ”an ecological disaster” resulting in “mass deaths”.  They go on to describe a nightmare scenario where radionuclides would disperse over a wide area, killing many thousands of Iranians in relatively short order.

Furthermore, as Hiroshima taught us, the predictable results of longer term exposure and its residual effects could kill possibly hundreds of thousands from cancer and other related complications.  And the effects wouldn’t be limited simply to Iran.  Even more alarming is that the northerly winds which blow toward the Gulf through most of the year, will heavily affect Bahrain, Qatar and the UAE.

And now for the bad news.  It seems that we are uncomfortably close to a decision. By 2010 Iran would have enough nuclear weapons to deter a first strike. This along with enhanced air defenses might prove to be the critical mass required to push Israel over the edge toward a costly attack with perilously uncertain consequences.  Maybe this is the reason that many countries from the region are laying in a supply of Geiger counters in case the day arrives when the clouds overhead may contain more that just water vapor.